Is The Recession Over Already?

We believe in the resilience of the US economy. Recent years’ monetary tightening didn’t bring on a recession; this year’s tariff turmoil isn’t likely to either. We’re lowering the odds we see of a recession back to 35%, where it had been in early March. One reason is that China and the US appear ready to start negotiating a trade deal. Trump needs to get past trade issues for the Republicans to keep their majorities in Congress after the midterms. … Also: The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators has been rising to new record highs. And Friday’s jobs report boosted our confidence in the labor market’s resilience. …And: Time to raise our S&P 500 target?