On Trade & Earnings

Today, we evaluate whether China or the US has more leverage in the trade war. China has a good hand but depends heavily on the US consumer to absorb its production. Whichever side “wins,” the victory will come at the expense of global growth. … Also: Melissa summarizes the USTR’s report on other countries’ trade barriers that disadvantage US companies doing business abroad, with examples from China, the EU, and Canada. … And Joe notes unusual estimate revision behavior for the first weeks of a quarter: Analysts have been cutting their earnings and revenue expectations even before knowing Q1 results or getting new guidance from managements.