Who Will Save The Day?

Amid the recession fears heightened by Trump’s Tariff Turmoil, we take a look at what usually causes recessions. Our Credit Crisis Cycle (CCC) theory posits that financial system crises, unmitigated by intervention, lead to credit crunches. No such crisis has occurred, yet the financial markets are acting as though one has. Their distress is high but not enough to warrant Fed intervention—yet. As it stands, this is a manufactured bear market that can be reversed. … Also: We chat with Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners for a status update on how Trump 2.0’s promised tax cuts are faring in Congress. Our assessment is that regardless of the end result, tax cuts are unlikely to offset tariffs—a tax hike—as they stand.