Trump Turmoil Raises Odds Of A Recession

Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs have rattled investors, shaken confidence in the economy, and inflamed inflation fears. The pain of these decisive actions is being felt now, while the benefits of his other policies are further off. As a result, we’re revising our subjective odds of two of our three outlooks. We’re not changing the 55% probably assigned to our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario, but we now see less chance of a stock-market meltup/meltdown scenario (10%) and higher odds of a recession and bear market (35%). … Also: Melissa examines why the copper price has been rallying notwithstanding stagnant global economic growth.