Labor Market Remains In Good Shape

Our conviction in the labor market’s continued health wasn’t shaken by the increase in unemployment that triggered the Sahm Rule a few months ago. Today, Eric explains why we dismissed this signal and why we expect revised BLS data next month to show payroll employment at another record high. A greater influx of immigrants than the Census Bureau initially realized has boosted labor market participation, which boosted unemployment. … High rates of immigration have supported GDP growth by increasing aggregate hours worked along with the productivity growth boom now underway. We expect the productivity boom to continue, playing a big role in our Roaring 2020s scenario, with its main driver being the widespread adoption of new technologies as immigration slows.