Europe Is A Mess

In our framework of three possible scenarios, Ed and Eric assign the lowest subjective odds, 20%, to a catchall bucket of crises that could seriously derail financial markets. They include a 1970s-style geopolitical crisis, a US debt crisis, and now a 1930s-style geopolitical calamity as hostilities escalate in the Ukraine/Russia war. … Also: Melissa reports on the Eurozone’s political and economic challenges. Our low hopes for solutions keep us cautious on investing in stocks across the pond. … And: Analysts’ revenues and earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies typically drop as a year progresses. Joe’s data suggest that 2024 won’t be an exception—but 2025 very well could be.