Trick Or Treat?

The stock market doesn’t seem to mind today’s “SNAFU” state of affairs, but the bond market has legitimate concerns about a federal debt crisis. We do, too, and are incorporating that prospect into our three-scenario odds. We now see a 30% chance of a crisis—either a US government debt crisis and/or a geopolitical crisis—up from 20%. We’re less bullish on the stock market near term and are lowering our odds of a meltup to 20% from 30%. We remain bearish on bonds. … Also: Melissa summarizes the latest geopolitical frights that don’t seem to be concerning markets. … Joe shares takeaways from the 3Q earnings data of the early reporting S&P 500 companies.