On Economic Data & Theories

Survey-based economic data seem to have become less reliable in recent years, yet some prognosticators build their economic narratives around these soft data that often conflict with the relevant hard data. Today, Eric examines the reliability of five such data sources, which have led many hard-landers astray. … Likewise, ten macroeconomic theories are of dubious help in interpreting what’s going on with the economy these days. Yet they are still followed by many, even when their signals fly in the face of evidence to the contrary.