On Geopolitical & Credit Crises

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East mount and Ukraine’s war with Russia intensifies oil prices may be starting to spike. So we reiterate our commodity- and equity-based hedges for these risks. On a happier note, Ed reviews our Credit Crisis Cycle theory for how monetary policy induces a recession... and why we don't see one currently. Eric also reviews the latest consumer credit data, explaining why household balance sheets look better than before the pandemic despite alarms sounding on credit card delinquencies.