The Almost Everything Global Panic Selloff

We’ve been making the case against a hard landing of the economy, as recessions invariably result from financial system crises and the credit crunches they cause. Could the unwind of the yen carry trade and the subsequent global rout in financial markets precipitate such a crisis? We don’t think so, but are closely monitoring credit conditions on both sides of the Pacific. How will the Fed respond? We’re sticking with our one-and-done rate-cut forecast for this year. How much longer will the stock-market pain continue? The bleeding could stop this week.