Eurozone, China& Q2 Earnings

A sea of troubles for European economies—including sagging growth, political headwinds, and an EC crackdown on fiscal miscreants—reinforces our Stay Home (versus Go Global) equity investing bias. … Chinese companies are evading US import tariffs by funneling their exports through intermediary countries before they reach US consumers, jeopardizing the US, Mexico, and Canada free-trade alliance. … Our analysis of tariff-related events and IMF trade statistics points to a grim outlook for direct exports from China to the US. … Also: Joe notes an anomaly in the S&P 500’s Q2 EPS estimate revisions over the course of the quarter: They didn’t decline as usual but remained unchanged. That bodes well for earnings surprises.