Assessing US Labor Market& Global Economy

We don’t think the Fed ought to lower interest rates this year, unlike many who rest their case on the rising unemployment rate. The BLS’s household measure of employment has been falling since November even as the BLS’s payroll measure has surged to new highs. Eric explains why we pay attention to the latter, which suggests the labor market isn't coming apart at the seams. … Our analysis of the CEI’s components suggests a similar story for the broader US economy, e.g., continued growth at a moderating pace. … As for the global economy, we see muddling overall growth and a bifurcation under the hood, with emerging economies powering global production while advanced economies specialize in producing services.