TAMED Tales

Indicators that often accurately signaled that a recession is on the horizon have missed the mark. Eric takes a look at why the economy has continued to thrive despite numerous Fed interest rate hikes and a plunging LEI. Thank the services and technology sectors as well as deflation imported from China. …  We expect the yield curve will remain inverted for a while longer as the Fed cuts interest rates very slowly and the 10-year Treasury yield bounces between 4%-5%. …  The Sahm Rule is close to warning that a recession is imminent or upon us. But after a closer look at why May’s unemployment rate ticked up—blame college kids—we believe the labor market remains robust.