The Great Leaps Forward & Backward

Economic indicators aren’t always indicative of what’s happening with economies. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to cry “Wolf!,” as it’s been doing for more than two years. Yet no US recession is in sight. That’s confirmed by both record-high S&P 500 forward earnings and the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators. … Robust commodities price action usually indicates a strong Chinese economy. Metals prices have rebounded briskly; yet China’s economy is very weak. The fact that oil prices haven’t concurred with the presumed message of the metals suggests something else going on.