The Fog Of War

The geopolitical backdrop for investing is foggy with uncertainties. Israel and Iran are flailing with no strategic plan on either side, their aggressions simply reactions to the other’s provocations. Financial markets are bracing for global economic impacts by watching the price of oil, also put at risk by Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries. … Less foggy for investors is what the Fed will likely do: keep interest rates higher for longer. That could be good for stocks if the reason is economic strength, providing needed earnings support to the bull market, but bad if the reason is intractable inflation.