As The World Churns

The US economy is outperforming most other countries, keeping the dollar strong. The global economic weakness has depressed the prices of commodities, especially oil, and helped moderate inflation. But globalization is alive and well: Export volumes are stalled, though in record-high territory. Manufacturing is recovering in most major economies and strongest in emerging ones. Most central banks are eyeing their easing options; Japan is the exception, eyeing tightening. … We think the US labor market remained strong enough last month to have boosted consumer spending. … Also: A brief world tour, visiting the economies of Germany, Japan, and China.