Geopolitics, GDP & Inflation

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. … Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring unsettling uncertainty to the stock market against a backdrop of well known headwinds and a troubled Chinese economy. … And: We review the latest inflation news. We don’t expect the Fed to surprise markets with a rate hike this week.