‘Talk To An Economist’

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: It’s worrying investors big time, but the escalating federal budget deficit doesn’t even merit an explanation from the administration driving it out of historically normal proportions. A federal deficit that’s rising as a percentage of nominal GDP at a time when GDP is rising is highly unusual. At risk is the bond market’s ability to finance the deficit at current interest rates. ... This concern could make bond yields less sensitive to inflation (and the Fed’s reaction to it) and more sensitive to bond supply and demand. For now, we’re sticking with our back-to-the-old-normal bond yield forecast, based on our moderating inflation forecast, but we are increasingly concerned about the flood of Treasuries.