From Strong To Soft Patch?

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast calls for a renewed soft landing. A stronger-for-longer economy wouldn’t jibe with the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance. ... But the economic outlook hinges much on what consumers do next. We don’t see them slamming on the spending brakes, as the hard-landers predict will happen when excess savings are depleted. But they might start tapping on the brakes, especially given the imminent resumption of student loan payments and tightening credit conditions.