Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The conventional wisdom is that economics is the study of how best to allocate scarce resources—a dismal proposition. I disagree: Economics is all about using technology to create and spread abundance—a much more uplifting definition. The dismal framing taught in universities seems to have produced economists biased toward pessimism. Perhaps that’s why most—after ample evidence that the economy is thriving—are just starting to accept that a recession is not about to happen. … Today, we examine the consensus views of economic forecasters, including within the Fed, and supply context to their outlooks in the form of what inflation has been doing, especially wage inflation.
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