Fully Employed

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: June’s newly released employment report gives us clues about June’s not-yet-released CEI, and the CEI closely tracks GDP. So from the employment report, we extrapolate that June’s CEI will likely confirm that real GDP grew around 2.0% y/y during Q2, close to the Atlanta Fed’s current prediction (2.1%). A recession is still possible if the Fed keeps tightening, but we see just a 25% chance of a hard landing. … Also: A look at our resilient labor market. Wage inflation continues to moderate, but wages adjusted for inflation have resumed their growth trend—suggesting revived productivity growth. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Diplomat” (+ +).