Slippery Slopes

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Oil prices are slipping notwithstanding Saudi Arabia’s production cuts, which aren’t as effective at halting such slides as they used to be. Too much global oil production capacity in the world relative to too little demand is the problem. … If oil prices are on a slippery slope, so is inflation; indeed, the latest inflation indicators suggest it is continuing to moderate. … As for the latest economic indicators, the NM-PMI and LEI are misleading. Their weakness doesn’t point to a broad-based recession. The forecast still looks like a rolling recession to us.