Leading The Wrong Way?

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: So where’s this recession signaled by the LEI and widely expected to come anytime now? Why haven’t high inflation and monetary tightening ground economic activity to a halt yet? Because a recession isn’t coming anytime soon. We never bought that it was inevitable anyway. We’re raising our subjective odds of a soft landing, instead of a recessionary hard one, to 70% from 60%. The burden of proof is now on the pessimists. … So what’s been keeping the economy from a textbook recession? Unusual forces are in play, acting as economic shock absorbers. … Also: Our Roaring 2020s boom-times thesis remains intact. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Air” (+ +).