Jobs Driving The Economy

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: It’s tough to believe that a recession is imminent with the Coincident Economic Indicators index as strong as ever. The CEI’s payroll employment component hit a record high in April, suggesting that the other three (yet-to-be-reported) components did too. Admittedly, the Leading Economic Indicators hasn’t been strong; its weakness purportedly indicates a coming downturn in the CEI and real GDP. But look at its ten components: Services are noticeably absent. So the LEI is not as trusty a recession bellwether as the CEI, in our view. … Also: Joe Feshbach’s insights on the stock market from a trader’s perspective.