Global Economy Here & There

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We’re not among the vocal doom-saying economic prognosticators. We say there’s a 60% chance that the economy will land softly this year and pick up speed next year, fueled by productivity gains. … Also: We update our rolling recession watch, zeroing in on two loan-dependent industries likely to be rolled over next: autos and commercial real estate construction. … And: Melissa examines why inflation is stickier in Europe than in the US and discusses other economic headwinds facing the Eurozone. These headwinds and the Europe MSCI’s current valuation make us less bullish on European stocks than we were last June.