The Big Lebowski

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The Fed’s rate hiking may have busted something in the credit system. Specifically, the disintermediation that tightening has caused may require small banks to cut costs so deeply that merging is their only recourse. … Given this, how can the Fed fail to conclude that the federal funds rate is restrictive enough now? Pausing the tightening for a while should land the economy softly, with moderating inflation. But continued tightening would cause a hard landing and possibly even deflation. … And: You wouldn’t know there’s any landing debate going on looking just at the labor market; payroll employment is at a record high.