‘Is It Safe?’

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The recent banking crisis has heightened fears of a recession. But still the S&P 500 is up ytd—buoyed greatly by the MegaCap-8 stocks. … The SVB debacle hasn’t changed our economic outlook, which pegs the odds of a recession at a relatively high 40%, as we’re not convinced it will lead to a credit crunch that triggers a recession. … We’ll know if the banking system isn’t as resilient as we think if we see deterioration in the Fed’s weekly H.8 data, showing the assets and liabilities of commercial banks. … So far, we think that the SVB crisis will be contained thanks to the Fed’s emergency liquidity facility. ... Dr. Ed reviews “Boston Strangler” (+).