On US Earnings & India’s Economy

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: This earnings season stands out from most, and not in a good way: Hearing managements discuss their companies’ Q4 results on conference calls has sent analysts back to their spreadsheets. Consensus earnings estimates for all four quarters of this year have been falling. … Looking at valuations in the context of falling estimates suggests that the S&P 500 isn’t cheap after its runup since October. SMidCaps and overseas stocks are cheaper. ... Also: India aims to usurp China as the go-to nation for outsourcing, hoping to shed its “developing” status and become a global trade leader. But first, it may need to clean up its act.