On Bonds & Europe

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Bond yields aren’t determined as much by supply and demand as they are by investor expectations regarding inflation and the Fed’s likely response to it. But it’s helpful to stay aware of the latest supply-and-demand-related developments in the bond market, which we review today. … Also: The EU has been doing a remarkable job of finding alternative fuel sources to replace energy imports from Russia. If a war-provoked energy crisis this winter causes a recession in Europe, chances seem good that it’ll be mild and brief.