On Earnings & Inflation

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Whether that changes up ahead depends much on what happens to profit margins. … In this context, Joe discusses the latest earnings results for Q3, explaining how to interpret the results supplied by two different data providers. …And: A look at the components of October’s CPI results, which cheered the stock market at the end of last week. ... Also: Feshbach sees trading range ahead.