Powell Is From Mars, Brainard Is From Venus

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Has the stock market been voting early? It‘s up 5% since the S&P 500’s October 12 bottom—which may turn out to be the bear market’s ultimate bottom. Tomorrow’s midterm elections may further boost stock prices in coming months if history is a guide. Our soft-landing economic outlook, if it pans out (60% subjective odds), may be another wind at the stock market’s back. … A headwind last week was Fed Chair Powell’s peak hawkishness, but we expect to hear counterbalancing views from other Fed officials now that their quiet period is over. … Much now—both the economic and financial market outlooks—hinges on inflation reports in coming months. ... On inflation, Brainard makes sense. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “Don’t Worry Darling” (+ +).