The Most Widely Anticipated Recession In History

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Some areas of US economy are thriving while others flounder, and several looming challenges signal tough times ahead. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO yesterday said a recession is coming. Our assessment is that a rolling recession is already here and should linger well into next year. … We’re raising our Q3 forecast for real GDP and lowering our Q4 one. … Notably, small business owners remain depressed, with inflation topping their worry list even as they’re forced to exacerbate it. … Also: Industry analysts have been continuing to lower their earnings sights; we may do the same for S&P 500 earnings this year and next depending on the strength of Q3 earnings results.