How’s Business?

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Today we focus on business sales, showing how it relates to the key economic indicators that feed into our economic outlook and how it correlates with S&P 500 companies’ aggregate and forward revenues, feeding into our stock market outlook. … For the economy, we forecast a “rolling recession”—a.k.a. “growth recession”—that depresses different industries at different times but avoids shrinking the overall economy. For the S&P 500, we estimate forward EPS of $215 this year, up 3.1% y/y, and $235 next year, up 9.3%.