More On The Bulls Vs Bears Debate

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Is the stock market rally since June 16 a rally within the bear market or the start of a new bull market? The answer hinges on the economic outlook. We’re in the bull camp, believing that inflation is peaking, Fed tightening is nearly over, and a recession won’t result; bears may believe the opposite. … Analysts have been cutting their estimates for earnings but not revenues, so expected profit margins have been falling. That suggests they see no recession, just more difficulty passing fast-rising costs on to customers. … Also: Peeks at the MegaCap-8’s rally impacts on the S&P 500, Senator Schumer’s wrong-headed anti-buyback stance, and alternative measures of inflation.