Around The World

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Zooming out to assess big-picture data for major global economies, we conclude that Germany and China look most vulnerable to a recession next year. The US wouldn’t be immune to a global recession, but certain factors help insulate it. These include heavy capital inflows resulting from foreign investors’—correct—perception that US financial markets offer the safest harbor there is. Overweighting the US in global portfolios remains prudent. … Also: Germany’s economy faces duress this winter as heating the country becomes a challenge, and China’s economy is suffering at the hands of homegrown problems related to housing, lockdowns, and demographics.