Bear Market Rally Or A New Bull Market?

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: What’s ahead for the stock market? That depends on the significance of the S&P 500’s June 16 low-to-date in the current bear market, of 3666. If that turns out to be the bear’s bottom—which sure would be freaky since the previous one was at S&P 500 666—then either a bull market or a sideways-drifting one is just ahead. Alternatively, deeper lows may be in store if the gain since June 16 was just a short-covering rally within a bear market (as the reversal in sector leadership suggests). … Today, we examine both the bull and bear scenarios, laying out the cases for each.