Reassessing the ‘Banana’ Scenario

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Is a recession imminent? Is it here already? How big an impact will it have, if it comes, when it comes? The dreaded “R” word has everyone in a tither, and so does the weakness in the LEI. But the CEI suggests everything’s just fine. We recap the latest economic releases and how they’ve led us to the subjective probabilities we assign to four alternative economic scenarios. … We also assess how well peaks in the S&P 500 presage recessions. ... And: The stock market may have hit its bear bottom already according to the Da Vinci Code, if inflation is peaking and that tempers the Fed’s hawkishness. Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Staircase” (+ +).