The Second Half of 2022

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The US economy is probably heading into a mild recession, recent indicators suggest. We now see real GDP contracting by 1.9% this year. … The good news: The recession should be over next year and should slow the rate of inflation in H2-2022 and 2023. The sooner the business cycle bottoms, the sooner the stock market will. … Analysts will be getting the recession memo shortly and cutting their estimates accordingly. We’re doing so now, lowering our earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies this year and next.