Valuation Meltups & Meltdowns

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Valuation is in the eye of the beholder, but the economic outlook that influences it isn’t as subjective or hard to forecast, with lots of data available to help. … We think forward P/Es may be range bound this year and next and the S&P 500 may remain volatile below its January 3 high before climbing to new highs in 2023 and 2024. … Recession fears are weighing on valuations. We raised the odds of a mild recession to 40%, up from 30%, last week and again explain why. … Also: We discuss the variables suggesting a moderation of inflation ahead, led by consumer durables. … Finally: Dr. Ed reviews “Benjamin Franklin” (+ + +).