Inflation Peak-a-Boo

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We concur with Fed Chair Powell that getting inflation back to Earth needn’t crash our strong, liquid economy. The Bond Vigilantes aren’t as far behind the inflation curve as the Fed: They’ve already tightened credit conditions in the financial markets significantly. We expect inflation to peak this summer between 6%-7% and to recede to 3%-4% next year with no recession. … We may have spotted the first signs of peaking inflation already, in lower three-month than y/y rises of several price and wage measures. … But there are certainly plenty of indicators that cast doubt on the peaking-soon scenario. … Also, a movie review: “Summit of the Gods” (+ + +).