Waiting for a Break

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Investors are fretting that the Fed will slam on the monetary brakes, sending the economy hurtling down a ravine, but how legit are their concerns? Historical behavior of stock valuations and earnings estimates prior to feared and actual recessions offers perspective. Corrections usually reflect false alarms about impending recessions, whereas sustained bear markets reflect the real thing. … We also check more conventional leading economic indicators for perspective. … Plus: Fresh supply-chain disruptions resulting from China’s widespread lockdowns could trigger a recession there and potentially weigh on growth here. … And: We examine the latest stats on another of China’s homegrown problems: its birth dearth.