The Monetary Policy Cycle

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) More on Panic Attack #73. (2) How is this taper tantrum different than the previous three? (3) From cooing doves to squawking hawks. (4) Tracking the Fed’s monetary policy cycle. (5) Bond yields rise during tightenings, fall during easings. (6) Yield-curve spread usually widens late during tightenings; this time, it’s been narrowing before tightening has even started. (7) Stocks have rallied before and early during tightenings. (8) The P/E tends to rise and fall as the federal funds rate falls and rises. (9) A déjà vu of 2000 all over again? (10) S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and margins all at record highs. (11) Tracking Covid around the world. (12) Learning to live with the pathogen.