What Are the Odds?

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) On the road in Cincinnati. (2) Lots to talk about. (3) The Roaring ’20s vs the Great Inflation of the ’70s. (4) Still placing 65/35 subjective odds. (5) Productivity growth is the key swing variable. (6) Manufacturing productivity growth decline coincided with US manufacturing capacity moving to China. (7) The case for reshoring has never been better. (8) A productivity boom would be good for real wages and profit margins. (9) Productivity growth collapsed during the 1970s. (10) Three inflation scenarios. (11) Climate change activists could leave us all out in the cold. (12) Movie review: “Nine Perfect Strangers” (+).