Stocks, Inflation & The Productivity Portfolio

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Tapering tantrum time? (2) We weren’t surprised by hawkish drift in dots. (3) Stocks beat bonds as inflation hedges. (4) Rising costs can squeeze profit margins unless they are offset by raising selling prices or boosting productivity. (5) Revenues and earnings tend to rise faster than prices. (6) Real earnings yield, which is currently bearish, is highly correlated with other leadings economic indicators, which are currently bullish. (7) Real dividend yield isn’t a useful market timing tool. (8) Valuation and the Misery Index. (9) Movie review: “Oslo” (+ + +).