Not So Bad

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Late start to school year depresses September payrolls. (2) Solid gain in payrolls excluding teachers. (3) Payrolls regain 54% of jobs lost during lockdown recession. (4) Big recovery in aggregate hours worked augurs well for our Earned Income Proxy and personal income. (5) Regional business surveys correctly predicted the V-shaped recovery in national M-PMI from April through September. (6) Lots of upbeat comments from M-PMI report. (7) NM-PMI isn’t all about services. (8) Lots of upbeat comments from NM-PMI report and a few not-so-happy ones. (9) Prices-paid indexes in regional and national business surveys are rebounding. (10) Watching, but not worrying, about inflation.