2020 Vision

(1) DaVinci Code 2020. (2) Hard to see a credit crunch next year with central banks still easing. (3) Less geopolitical tumult in 2020? (4) No regime change in 2021 White House. (5) 2020 vs 2019: Tighter labor market, less trade tension. (6) Another good year for consumers, and a better one for housing industry. (7) Productivity growth likely to surprise to the upside. (8) The Fed is done for a while. (9) Risks: Round up the usual suspects and the zombies too. (10) Stock market meltup? (11) Earning the coupon on bonds. (12) Neutral on the dollar at this level.