Shiller’s Bullish Trump Scenario

(1) The biggest risk to longest economic expansion may be political rather than financial. (2) Shiller’s odd theory: Consumers want to take after Trump. (3) Trump has given consumers more after-tax income with more uncertainty. (4) Big increase in personal saving since Trump was elected president. (5) No boom, no bust. (6) LEI stalls; may be running out of room to improve. (7) No surprise: Economic Surprise Index improves during second half of most years. (8) More upside surprises in US than in Eurozone. (9) Forward earnings better here than over there. (10) More bargains over there than over here. (11) Waiting for commodity prices to bottom. (12) China continues to slow.