Powell’s Latest Mid-Cycle Adjustment

(1) Avoiding off-the-cuff remarks. (2) Powell repeats his mantra more often: “Fed is data dependent.” (3) More uncertainty. (4) On the same page with Powell: Yield curve’s recession signal distorted by negative bond yields overseas. (5) Powell not ready to satisfy Trump’s NIRP envy. (6) The Fed may be done for the rest of the year. (7) Trade uncertainty weighing on business spending. (8) Fed’s dot plot is a work in progress.