Productivity Could Frustrate Endgamers

(1) Dueling leading indicators: The yield curve vs the S&P 500. (2) Trump doesn’t like inverted yield curves. (3) Meetings in the Heartland. (4) No recession evident in retail sales or GDPNow estimate. (5) Predicting 10 out of 7 recessions. (6) No sign of a credit crunch. (7) The endgame doomsters love bad news. (8) Labor shortages should stimulate productivity. (9) The beginning of a major rebound in productivity growth? (10) Real compensation growth is really making a comeback. (11) Unit labor cost inflation based on ECI remains subdued, which is subduing price inflation. (12) Revisions don’t change the productivity story. (13) Movie review: “One Child Nation” (+ + +).