Tariff Man vs Mao Man

(1) Deal or no deal? (2) Hardliners in China and in the US have the upper hand. (3) Escalating trade war. (4) Chinese checkers is a game with winners and losers. (5) Trade works best when there are no losers. (6) China has more at risk than US. (7) Currency war unlikely. (8) Xi wants Trump to lose the next election. (9) Trump expects Xi to do a deal once he wins another term in the White House. (10) Trumping the Fed. (11) Xi’s homegrown problems. (12) For Trump, the endgame may be simply to push supply chains out of China, which is happening already.